Bottom Line:
Friday’s cash session lows are the lines in the sand for an intermediate term bullish case. The 50% retracement levels of Friday’s ramp up ideally will not be exceeded during any retracement that may occur early in the week.
Continued breadth expansion should be seen very soon under the present bullish working assumption.
PDF: Weekend Report_2023_10_09
SPX
Upper KRAs: 4334; 4374-4402
Lower KRAs: 4270; 4219
NDX
Upper KRA: 15201-15270
Lower KRAs: 14795; 14575; 14429
RUT
Upper KRA: 1809
Lower KRAs: 1734; 1713
DOW
Upper KRA: 33896
Lower KRAs: 33209; 32846
SPX Profile
Internals
NYSE data reached the upper cusp of downside extreme in recent trade. If an important low is in place Friday’s cash session lows should hold, and breadth should continue to expand.
Friday’s NYSE closing breadth reading was 769, rather underwhelming. However, sometimes a much larger breadth thrust doesn’t come until a day or two after an important low, but it should occur soon, IF Friday market an important low.
US 10-yr Notes
Volatility in US 10-yr Notes and 30-yr Bonds is unprecedented. If trading these contracts I suggest going down in timeframe.
US Dollar
The US Dollar has been a persistent, two-sided grind higher since the end of July. My guess (emphasis guess) is to favor shorts against the recent high.
Gold
From last weekend’s Report:
The next potential “support” from an Auction Market perspective is 1824-1810.
Crude
Crude is due for a bounce, but the trend is definitively down.
