Weekend Report for Monday, November 27

Bottom Line:

From last weekend’s Report:

The SPX, NDX and DOW have formed minor Balance Areas and are likely to break sharply in Initiative fashion early next week. My guess is up, at least initially. If I am wrong and the break is down, I still believe the indices will recover to new rally highs before something more significant to the downside occurs.

I’m traveling so this will be short. We’ll focus on the SPX since if there is any price movement of significant all four of the primary indices will move in the same direction.

The indices remain in Vertical Development. The current rate of change is unsustainable. Balance that includes some retracement of greater magnitude that any since the October low is increasingly “overdue”.


Potential paths of development:

The migration of VALUE is persistently higher:

The 10-day MA of NYSE advancing issues is at its highest level since July. The 5-day is diverging against recent rally highs. There is nothing “bell-ringing” from this perspective…yet.

SPX 30m price/breadth:

The SPX is making higher highs and lows. Continue to look for short-term lows in the ADV/DECL zone highlighted. A reliable initial signal a top of relative significance is likely in place is when this pattern fails.