Weekend Report for Monday, April 1

Bottom Line:

The trend remains strongly up. There is no objective signal from an Auction Market, price action perspective that a top is in place or close. While a short-term top could occur at any time, and certainly a reasonable case can be made that one is “overdue”, the remarkable dip and rip pattern that has been in effect since the October 2023 lows remains intact.

The objective thing to do is to watch the obvious “support” levels that the market forms. Until and unless those levels begin to break the trend is up. This very simple technique is effective in all time frames.

There is an incredible demand to “know” where and when a top will occur. This demand will be met from all quarters, by both fundamental and technical analysts. Someone will get it right because of the law of large numbers.

If you are a trader this is simply noise. Trade the market, not the guesses about the market.

PDF: Weekend Report_2024_04_01

VIDEO

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SPX

From last weekend’s Report 

Retracements since the late December top have a magnitude from 1.66% to 2.52%. IF the SPX is in process of another minor retracement the “target” for a similar magnitude retracement as has been occurring is 5172-5129

A close below 5129 would be “something different” and would merit further analysis. 

The dip that occurred last week completed at Tuesday’s low at 1.10%, not even to the minimum magnitude of previous declines which highlights the incredible panic bid underneath the current market.

That level (5203.40) is now the lower KRA for the SPX.

There is no “resistance” above the SPX’s Thursday all-time high close Wednesday’s low at 5203.40 is now the immediate downside level to watch. If that represented the low of the “dip”, the next rip, if similar in magnitude to those that have occurred following minor pullbacks since the first of the year, projects to 5361-5382 (two projections), or 5422-5446 as the maximum “rip” prior to a minor dip. Something I noticed when doing this exercise is that the rips have gotten progressively less in magnitude. 

A close below 5203.40 signals a potential change in the pattern. If that occurs we will reassess at that point in time.

SPX 30m

Upper KRA: ?
Lower KRA: 5203.40

SPX Profile 

From last weekend’s Report:

The SPX broke very strongly up from the compressed Balance Area formed since the end of February. It appears to be in a new distribution to the upside.

Chart updated through Thursday’s close:

NDX

Upper KRA: 18464
Lower KRA: 18168; 17877-17758

DOW

Upper KRA: 39889
Lower KRAs: 39275

RUSSELL 2000

Upper KRA: 2136
Lower KRA: 2070

US 10-yr Notes

No change: Notes are between important pivots after testing an important downside KRA.

US Dollar

No change: I don’t see any well-defined opportunity. Lot of chop.

Gold

Gold is very resilient, but spikey. Watch 2187 to the downside.

Crude

Crude continues to chop higher.