Weekend Report for Monday, August 25

Weekend Report for Monday, August 25, 2025

Bottom Line:

From last weekend’s update and still applies:

The NYSE cumulative advance/decline line continues to make new all-time highs, confirming the bull market. By no means does this preclude bouts of what many (I) consider way overdue downside volatility, but I am unaware of any bull market ending with the NYSE cumulative A/D line at ATHs. (Click here for chart).

Unless it is very different this time, this implies at least a few months of more upside potential, and it could be substantial, before a true bear begins.A “bear trend” is a market that has a downside bias for many months. The dip and rips we have been seeing will transition into dip and failed rips. We are not seeing that, yet.

There is very disparate price action among the indices. It could be due to simply a broadening market. It could be a sign of a longer-term top forming, like the 2000 top that took many months. It is not a good time to be making the assumption all the indices are going to move up or down in lock-step.

THE NYA, DOW, equal weight S&P and SPX all closed at new all-time weekly highs as the market continues to broaden out. The NDX also had a strong day Friday but has been “victimized” by rotation and the broadening of the market, so it is at least temporarily underperforming (for about a week). “Underperforming” is most certainly a relative term with the NDX still up over 42% from its April print low.

There is nothing suggesting a low of any magnitude is in sight. IF this is correct, the 50% retracment levels of Friday’s ramp in the indices should hold during any “digestion” early next week.

PDF: Weekend Report_2025_08_25
VIDEO: https://youtu.be/y9jLunCHNXc

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SPX Intermediate-term Profile

There are several very viable paths of development. The most bullish one is that Wednesday’s low is the low of another distribution (range) to the upside. If this is correct we will see strong upward price action into at least mid-week.

SPX Daily

Upper KRA: ?
Lower KRAs: 6432; 6343

RSP

Upper KRAs: 188
Lower KRA: 187-186

NDX:

Upper KRA: 23969
Lower KRA: 23376; 22959

DOW:

Upper KRA: ?
Lower KRA: 44955-44789

RUT Weekly

Upper KRA: 2466
Lower KRA: 2328; 2285-2272

New York Composite

Upper KRA: ?
Lower KRAs: 21005; 20746

Internals

NYSE closing breadth registered its highest reading since the kickoff of off the April low. This type of extreme breadth expansion typically implies weeks of upside bias in the indices. What is different this time is that the April low was accompanied by extremely compressed internals seen an intermedaite-term market lows. Friday’s expansion followed minor dips. This doesn’t chamge my interpertation that this expansion should lead to weeks of futher rally, but it is of note. Retracing Friday’s ranges in all the indices is what it would take to invalidate Friday’s bullish price action and overall tenor.